Historicando

Historicando
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19 agosto 2007

Perda de reservas...

Portugal, Espanha e Grécia em risco de grave crise económica devido à perda de reservas
Conquanto o discurso interpretado pelos nossos agentes económicos e dirigentes, o crescimento económico não é sinónimo de estabilidade da economia e muito menos de qualidade de vida. As reservas estrangeiras de Espanha, Portugal e Grécia estão a cair vertiginosamente e podem mergulhar estes países numa grave crise económica nos próximos 18 meses. A notícia vem do Daily Telegraph.
Spain risks crisis over vanishing reservesBy Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Spain's foreign reserves have plummeted to wafer-thin levels, leaving the country exposed to a possible banking crisis if the property market swings from boom to bust - despite membership of the eurozone.
The Banco de Espana's holdings of foreign currencies and gold have fallen to €13.2bn (£9.02bn), equivalent to 12 days of imports.
Over the past two months the Banco de España has sold off 80 tonnes of gold, flooding the world market with enough bullion to dampen the usual spring rally. The bank has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, British gilts, and other investments at a similar rate.
Total reserves have now fallen by two thirds from €41.5bn in early 2002. Greece and Portugal have seen a similar drop.
By contrast, the overall reserves of the eurozone system have remained stable. France (€76bn), Germany (€86bn), Italy (€59.5bn) have all kept holdings at full strength since the launch of the euro.
The Banco de España refused to comment on the sales, leaving it unclear why reserves have fallen so low, or where the money has gone.
It appears the bank has been draining the reserves to help finance the current account deficit, which has ballooned to 9.5pc of GDP, reaching €8.6bn in January alone.
"The current account is completely out of control," said Alberto Mattelan, an economist at Inverseguros in Madrid.
"We have the worst deficit in our history and worse than any other country in the western world. It has not yet become a 'street concern', but I can assure you that it is of great concern to us economists. This will turn bad over the next 18 months," he said.
It is often assumed that reserves no longer matter once a country has joined the euro, but this ignores a crucial element in the workings of the EMU system. It is responsibility of the 13 national central banks to act as lender of last resort in a crisis, even though they have no control over interest rates.
"Where this gets serious is if there is a property collapse in Spain